Český finanční a účetní časopis 2022(1):35-58 | DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.572

The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic

Jiří Šindelář
Vysoká škola finanční a správní, Praha 3

This paper deals with an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of state budget plans, in the case of the Czech Republic. We based our analysis on a two-step methodology consisting of plan-reality deviances and their significance tests. As such, it was found that although the deviances with some budget chapters are notable, only a limited number of them is statistically significant. These are connected to the adjusted budget plan, which exhibited not only two chapters with a systemic planning bias (operating costs, budget balance), but also lack of incremental improvement (increasing accuracy with shortening planning horizon). The paper further disseminates the influence of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors on the quality of budget planning. After statistical analysis, we come to the conclusion that only the unemployment rate shows significant effect, with all other factors being found, surprisingly, insignificant.

Keywords: Government budget; Government budget deficit; Business cycle; Forecasting error; Forecasting bias.
JEL classification: C35, H61, H63, H68

Received: July 5, 2022; Revised: August 15, 2022; Accepted: September 6, 2022; Published: January 14, 2023  Show citation

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Šindelář, J. (2022). The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic. Czech Financial and Accounting Journal, 2022(1), 35-58. doi: 10.18267/j.cfuc.572
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