I18 - Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public HealthReturn

The economic situation of Health care is linked in each country to economic development. There are a lot of factors that can be classified, inter alia, according to time, i.e., whether they affect the current situation or whether it will more affect future developments. From the point of view of a longer period, the demographic structure of the population is an important factor. In the Czech Republic, as in many other countries, are two factors influencing the development of the Czech population, such as a lower birth rate (in 2017 the birth rate was 1,69) and a prolonged life expectancy. Opinions as to whether aging is an important factor affecting healthcare expenditure are not uniform. Among the factors operating in the medium and short term are, inter alia, economic developments (significant impact on the revenue side), electoral cycle, patient expectations and technology development. The aim of the paper is to forecast the development of healthcare expenditure due to changes in the age structure of the population in otherwise unchanged trends. The projection time interval corresponds to the length of the time series of average health expenditure. Demographic projection of the population of the Czech Republic until 2100 was used to find changes in the demographic structure.