G17 - Financial Forecasting and SimulationReturn

The article deals with quantitative forecast of demand for life insurance in Czech Rep. in years 2015-2018. In order to derive the forecast, causal model created on behalf of OECD member states, including macroeconomic, demographic as well as social variables was utilized. As an equivalent for the demand itself, density of life insurance in population was employed. The results show that in current period of economic growth, the consumption of life insurance should increase as well; that is, however, in sharp contrast with real development in the first half-year of 2015. This contradiction is probably a consequence of changes in insurance distribution, which recently culminated with public discussion on regulation of intermediaries´ commissions. Subsequent alternative scenario of commission cap was modelled as well, with the results indicating fundamental supply-demand implications.

The study analyzes the negative relationship between stock market returns and inflation. This finding is contrary to the standard view of the stock as an instrument for hedging of property against rising prices. The paper aims to summarize the main theoretical explanations for this relationship and replicates with the empirical data from the United States and the Czech Republic earlier study explaining the relationship with a string of fiscal and monetary reasons. The study used standard correlation and regression analysis. Results of the study for the most part did not confirm earlier conclusions about a possible explanation of the negative relationship between inflation and stock returns with those reasons.