C22 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion ProcessesReturn

The article deals with quantitative forecast of demand for life insurance in Czech Rep. in years 2015-2018. In order to derive the forecast, causal model created on behalf of OECD member states, including macroeconomic, demographic as well as social variables was utilized. As an equivalent for the demand itself, density of life insurance in population was employed. The results show that in current period of economic growth, the consumption of life insurance should increase as well; that is, however, in sharp contrast with real development in the first half-year of 2015. This contradiction is probably a consequence of changes in insurance distribution, which recently culminated with public discussion on regulation of intermediaries´ commissions. Subsequent alternative scenario of commission cap was modelled as well, with the results indicating fundamental supply-demand implications.

The paper deals with the testing of the hypothesis, whether there is negative correlation between the time series of corporate income tax yield and personal income tax yield in the states of EMU and the Czech Republic. The correlation analysis has not proved the negative correlation (except Netherlands) on 5% level of importance. It can be assumed, that in most cases the present competition in the filed of corporate income taxation in the EU does not lead to the shift in the tax burden from corporations on the individuals. The differences of corporate income taxation in individual member states reflect the different economic conditions - countries with higher tax rates offers more quality labor force and stable business environment, while the newly accessed countries use the lower tax rates for their establishment on the internal market of the European union.

The paper deals with G. Rudebusch's paper Federal Reserve Interest Rate Targeting, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure published in Journal of Monetary Economics in 1995. I define main resources of the study, discuss the most important parts of Rudebusch's paper and present key conclusions about the impact of central banks on the dynamics of money market interest rates. Besides I point out some problems that can influence our understanding of the behavior of interest rates. First of all this is the problem of instability of the period in which it is possible to make the correct prediction of the value of targeted interest rates. Hereafter I call attention to few technical aspects of managing the open market operations and last but not least I stress the problems of potential instability of term premium.